The IMF publishes its twice-yearly health check on the world economy today, which includes its latest forecasts. The outlook has brightened considerably since an interim forecast in January. Signs of stronger activity are visible in both rich countries and emerging markets. Forecasts for worldwide GDP growth are therefore likely to be revised upwards across the board. The IMF’s boss, Christine Lagarde, recently noted that after six years of disappointing growth, the world economy has a “spring in its step”. Still, the fund’s economists are unlikely to get carried away. Expect lots of coded talk about how the outlook could easily darken again because of “political uncertainty” (Marine Le Pen might win in France), “protectionism” (Donald Trump might start a trade war) and “tighter global financial conditions” (the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates too hastily). A lot could yet go wrong. But for the first time in ages a lot is going right.
read the original article